Archive for the ‘Credit Crunch’ Category

posted by Trader No 1 on Jun 16

Inflation fell in May to its lowest since the beginning of 2008, but remained higher than most economists expected.

The smaller than expected fall in consumer price inflation from 2.3 per cent in April to 2.2 per cent last month, compares to economists’ expectations for a drop to 2 per cent.

However, the retail price index fell by 1.1 per cent in May compared with prices a year ago, the Office for National Statistics reported on Tuesday. The fall was the second consecutive month of annual declines, although slightly less of a drop than the 1.2 per cent fall seen in April.

The CPI has fallen for the last three months and is well below its the recent peak of 5.2 per cent last September, which was brought on by soaring oil prices. It is now at its lowest since January of last year.

Many economists and the Bank of England have put the recent strength of inflation down to the sharp fall in sterling over the course of the financial crisis, driving up the price of imports. UK inflation remains well above that in the rest of the EU and the eurozone.

After the weaker pound worked its way into price levels, the UK economy still has to face the impact of higher unemployment on demand and inflation. The sharp fall in energy and commodity prices since last summer should also mean inflation falls much further by this autumn.

“With unemployment set to soar even higher over the next year, more than containing underlying inflationary pressure in the labour market, sterling may just have postponed the downside inflation risks, rather than killing them off altogether,” said Colin Ellis, economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC.

The Bank’s long term forecast is for inflation to fall below its 2 per cent target for an extended period of time.

Sterling hit rose to its highest level of the year against the euro following the release of the inflation report. The euro fell to £0.8444 against the UK currency, its weakest level since early December. The pound was also stronger against the dollar and the Swiss franc as investors bet the Bank of England would have to raise interest rates from their historically low level of 0.5 per cent earlier than previously thought.

posted by Trader No 1 on May 16

Turn the corner on 145th Street in Jamaica, Queens, and it is as though a cyclone has wheeled through.

One resident, Lakisha Brown, a hospital worker and mother of two, snatched her house back from foreclosure last month, if only temporarily. “We need to sell fast,” she says. “I’m just trying to save what’s left of my credit.” Across the street in this black middle-class neighborhood, Patrick Nicholas, a surgical technician in blue scrubs, shakes his dreadlocks and shrugs. He rents but is moving out. “The owner got foreclosed and told us to leave,” he says.

Six doors away, past two foreclosed and boarded-up homes, a burly man in a blue union jacket declines to give his name but his problem is evident. A foreclosure notice is pasted to the door of his house. His tone is mournful. “Tough times, man,” he says. “Tough, tough times.”

Late to arrive in the Northeast, the foreclosure crisis has swept through the New York region at an explosive pace in the past two years, destroying billions of dollars in housing wealth, according to a New York Times analysis of foreclosures filed since 2005 and federal mortgage data.

It now touches every corner of the region, from estates along the Connecticut Gold Coast to the suburban tracts of Long Island, where 6 percent of all mortgages are at least 90 days delinquent, the point at which foreclosure proceedings usually begin.

But the storm has fallen with a special ferocity on black and Latino homeowners, the analysis shows. Defaults occur three times as often in mostly minority census tracts as in mostly white ones. Eighty-five percent of the worst-hit neighborhoods — where the default rate is at least double the regional average — have a majority of black and Latino homeowners.

And the hardest blows rain down on the backbone of minority neighborhoods: the black middle class. In New York City, for example, black households making more than $68,000 a year are almost five times as likely to hold high-interest subprime mortgages as are whites of similar — or even lower — incomes.

This holds a special poignancy. Just four or five years ago, black homeownership was rising sharply, after decades in which discriminatory lending and zoning practices discouraged many blacks from buying. Now, as damage ripples outward, black families in foreclosure lose savings and credit, neighbors see the value of their homes decline, and renters are evicted.

That pattern plays out across the nation. A study released this week by the Pew Research Center also shows foreclosure taking the heaviest toll on counties that have black and Latino majorities, with the New York region among the badly hit.

On 145th Street in southeast Queens, just south of Linden Boulevard, attached brick homes with tidy, fenced-in gardens stretch into the distance. Children play tag under blooming oaks. But 8 of these roughly 50 homes face foreclosure; 4 are vacant; 2 have plywood boards nailed over punched-out windows.

“My district feels like ground zero,” said City Councilman James Sanders Jr., an African-American who represents hundreds of blocks in Queens like this one. “In military terms, we are being pillaged.”

Years ago many banks drew red lines on maps around black neighborhoods and refused to lend; more recently, some banks began taking aim at those neighborhoods for the marketing of subprime loans, say consumer advocates.

Black buyers often enter a separate lending universe: A dozen banks and mortgage companies, almost all of which turned big profits making subprime loans, accounted for half the loans given to the region’s black middle-income borrowers in 2005 and 2006, according to The Times’s analysis. The N.A.A.C.P. has filed a class-action suit against many of the nation’s largest banks, charging that such lending practices amount to reverse redlining.

“This was not only a problem of regulation on the mortgage front, but also a targeted scourge on minority communities,” said Shaun Donovan, the secretary of Housing and Urban Development, in a speech this year at New York University. Roughly 33 percent of the subprime mortgages given out in New York City in 2007, Mr. Donovan said, went to borrowers with credit scores that should have qualified them for conventional prevailing-rate loans.

For anyone taking out a $350,000 mortgage, a difference of three percentage points — a typical spread between conventional and subprime loans — tacks on $272,000 in additional interest over the life of a 30-year loan.

posted by Trader No 1 on Apr 22

Stranded by the nationwide slump in housing and jobs, fewer Americans are moving, the Census Bureau said Wednesday.

The bureau found that the number of people who changed residences declined to 35.2 million from March 2007 to March 2008, the lowest number since 1962, when the nation had 120 million fewer people.

Experts said the lack of mobility was of concern on two fronts. It suggests that Americans were unable or unwilling to follow any job opportunities that may have existed around the country, as they have in the past. And the lack of movement itself, they said, could have an impact on the economy, reducing the economic activity generated by moves.

Joseph S. Tracy, research director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the lack of mobility meant less income for movers and the people they employ and less spending on renovation and on durable goods like appliances. But, Dr. Tracy said, the most troubling prospect is that people were no longer able to relocate for work.

“The thing that would be of deeper concern is if job-related moves are getting suppressed and workers are not getting re-sorted to the jobs that best use their skills,” he said. “As the labor market started to improve, if mobility stays low, you can worry about the allocation of workers.”

How long will the downturn in mobility last? Michael J. Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University in Indiana, said, “I think it will be well into next year before we see any growth in migration, and that still may be optimistic.”

“If the stock market rebounds before the housing market, we might see a scramble for retirement housing,” Professor Hicks added.

The American Moving and Storage Association said the number of people changing residences had been dropping for four years and fell 17.7 percent from 2007 to 2008. The first quarter of 2009 is likely to be even worse, the trade group said.

“We saw a standstill in new home construction, so there was no domino effect from people moving,” John Bisney, a spokesman, said. “People are a little nervous about getting a mortgage. And the recession is so broad-based it’s not as if you can pull up stakes and move to a part of the country that’s growing.”

Jed Smith, a research director for the National Association of Realtors, said that on average it took a homeowner 10.5 months to sell a house in 2008 compared with 8.9 months in 2007.

“Generally speaking, people move based on the economy,” Dr. Smith said, “and obviously the economy in 2008 was mediocre to bad. That would tend to have a negative impact on people’s desire, ability or need to move.”

In its report Wednesday, the Census Bureau said that Americans’ mobility rate, which has been declining for decades, fell to 11.9 percent in 2008, down from 13.2 percent the year before and setting a post-World War II record low. Moves between states dropped the most, to half the rate recorded at the beginning of this decade.

posted by Trader No 1 on Mar 31

All those wise heads who have been calling the end of the bear market will have to wait just a little longer before being able to say “I told you so” as the FTSE 100 delivers a rather alarming setback to start the week.

Once again the failure of the of the FTSE at the all important combination point of the 50 day moving average and the line of Resistance at 3,950 dating back from January 2009 means that the wise ones amongst us would be best served to give this market the benefit of the doubt……just But for those who would still like to, only an end of day close below the grey 20 day moving average at 3,758 is the trigger for a retest of the lows.

posted by Trader No 1 on Feb 15

Well it has certainly been an interesting week on the Markets and this is how we see it at the Trading With Common Sense Desk. First of all with regards to the UK, the FTSE and of course Lloyds Bank, where do we stand?

Well to be honest one never knows exactly with these sort of shenanigans going on but here is an educated guess from the Trading with Common Sense Team.

I think most experts are in accordance with the fact that no one knows exactly how deep the hole is at HBOS (possibly even the HBOS management don’t know which is really worrying) but for a certainty I would bet that the LloydsTSB Hierarchy don’t know and that is what is causing the distress and uncertainty at the moment.

Regarding one of our “2 Sure Fire Winning Strategies”  I hope those of you who had downloaded the free report in time took action as there was a nice range of about 40 odd points to aim at and there were profits to be had certainly. I know we didn’t make as much as we could have but the news caught everyone on the hop and I guess that was what added to the confusion and mark down amongst Traders.

Where to next? Well for those adventurous amongst us there has to be the rather enticing prospect of at least some sort of “dead cat bounce” so perhaps a long bought in the 50-55 pence region and then aim for a quick and dirty 10 points or so and get out when it hits the 60 pence region. If nothing else this could certainly help pay for this years family summer holiday and leave the rest of the bounce or so to the “deep pocket brigade”. I always advise on something like this to set your target, aim, fire and then get out before the shouting starts so to speak and also whilst still in profit.

Why do I think there is going to be some sort of “dead cat bounce”?

Well the logic goes as this. Firstly yes there is a hole; we don’t know how deep (possibly as I’ve said the management don’t either) but you can bet the top level management at Lloyds are going to be “working their butts off” to come out with some sort of positive news campaign to reassure the markets. How successful remains to be seen but they will definitely have to try and then let’s see what effect this has. There has to be some and the longevity of this approach depends upon how much “spin goodwill” credits the management team have with the media. I think they have more than most people realise and this is tied into my next viewpoint as to whether the rumours abounding about bank nationalisation are to be taken seriously.

I think Lloyds Banking Group and the entire Banking sector are going to need more cash as we have the full effect of the Alt-A fiasco to percolate through and most of this won’t emerge until after the first quarter of 2009. Secondly this will hit the banks hard but possibly not Lloyds as much as the rest as they were by and large (apart from HBOS) fairly immune to these sorts of transactions prior to the whole banking crisis starting.

Secondly to nationalise Lloyds Banking Group would be a massive act of bad faith on behalf of the UK Government as they did…….er …ask Lloyds to step in as a “White Knight” to rescue HBOS in the first place and to then “nick their shares” and shaft them afterwards for being so obliging in the first place would basically send a notice out to the markets that UK Govt Plc (especially Mssrs Brown and Darling) are not to be trusted ever again.

There will be a fudge (there always is, as that is what us Brits are experts in) and some sort of accounting “jiggery pokery” will take place but that is all. The share Price of Lloyds has been in this sort of range before and the key thing is that LloydsTSB via its retail banking operations is sitting on large piles of cash so Aunt Sals and Grannies annuities are safe for the foreseeable future.

With regards to the markets then it would appear that at the moment with the FTSE we have possibly reached one of the those “cusp” moments where it could so easily go either way. The fact that the market has remained so positive throughout the plethora of bad news since Christmas is indeed a positive thing and one that gives most bulls confidence but….(isn’t there always a but?) we have now come bang up against the trend line that has been in force since Christmas and the key level to watch is an end of day close below the 4,100 level. Below that and you would expect another test of the Oct / Nov lows but it has to be stressed how resilient the FTSE has performed as of late and so nothing it would seem is a done deal yet. It would appear that it is likely to take something major to take the FTSE down again (perhaps another partial Banking meltdown) and so performance this week with reporting underway is crucial.

In the US, the next leg down is perhaps already underway and the DOW is only effectively around 300 points away from breaking historic intraday lows but again with new information surrounding the Obama Rescue package out this week, don’t necessarily bet on new lows being established this week as volatility appears to be the order of the day and this could see fairly violent swings either way.

All this adds up to terrific conditions as far as the Market Trader are concerned with plenty of action to be had both up and down and that as Traders are concerned is all we can ask for.

posted by Trader No 1 on Feb 10

What a day eh? Once again Politicians conspire to screw things up but as far as we’re concerned here at TWCS Central, bring it on guys. As long as the markets are moving then we don’t care as we believe in trading every which way we can, long or short we don’t care as long as there is opportunity for profit.

For example, initially we sold the FTSE this morning and also early afternoon. By late tea time GMT we thought we saw a window of opportunity to go long on the DOW round about the 7980 - 8000 range and went for it. £30K and 30 minutes later that went well and we got out when a couple of indicators flashed up and the market fell about another 100 points. Then we called the DOW long at 7880 and got out around the 7925 mark so profits were there also to the tune of £40K in six minutes.

From our point of view it will be interesting to see what happens overnight in the Far East. As long as the DJIA futures don’t sustain too much damage and drag the FTSE futures down again below the 4,100 mark then we could see a bit of a rebound we reckon. The key level is around the November support level of 4,100. An end of day close below that and it’s probably fill your boots time and sell, sell (at least for a few days). Maintain a position above that (and it is as we write at 4,171) and then we could see a rebound with a target of between 4,300 - 4,600 at least.

The trouble is that with the performance today of our esteemed Bankers in front of a Parliamentary Sub Committee then that could cloud matters and cause all sorts of uncertainties and confusion etc. The one thing (as today’s reaction in the US showed) is that it is uncertainty and surprises that spook the market. We all know there is bad news and by and large that is already priced in by the market makers but it is when our lovely politicians throw the odd unexpected spanner in the works that everybody goes into a flat panic.

Today’s address by US Treasury Secretary Geithner certainly has not helped the markets for those in search of a little stability and the amazing thing is that to be honest most traders could have foretold what the reaction was going to be to these proposals. Wall street closed last Friday looking for serious gifts from the Treasury (as one US Media spokesperson put it) and now it is being told that the gifts are not coming from the Treasury alone but also from Private Institutions as well. This latter part is going to be very interesting as I did say that these proposals were going to go down badly in an earlier article and without wishing to be too self effacing – I am no “Sooth Sayer” and if I could spot how badly they would be received then how in heaven’s name could the US Treasury not do so?

The only other rationale could be “its grim news, it’s going to go down badly anyway so at east let’s get things out in the open. Watch the markets panic and try and re build stability gradually”. The trouble with this strategy is that it implies that the authorities are thinking constructively and logically about what they are doing.

Something that they don’t have too much of an impressive track record doing.

posted by Trader No 1 on Feb 9

Been a funny old day at the Trading With Common Sense offices in that the markets have to all intent purposes been treading water but as far as our accounts are concerned we have had a “blinding time” i.e. on one account we started the day at £57,259 and just recently closed the last transaction of the day to bring the fund up to £102,118.74 a staggering profit for the day of £44859.04 and an ROI for the fund for the day of 78.34% which equates to an annual rate of……well “loads of wonga” as a colleague of mine once eloquently put it.

The strange thing was as you see the as far as most FTSE trades were concerned the index actually opened and closed within 15.74 points of each point but the story of the day was the tremendous range trading in between. Perhaps we were lucky and perhaps we just managed to “get into the zone” for the best part of the day but to be honest that would be making more of it than it actually was. A lot of the trades were so mind stunningly simple to make that it would “over egg” the report to make anything more of it than usual.

The day kicked off with better than expected results from major UK Bank Barclays which though as I said better than expected still didn’t manage to fire up the markets to the degree that they perhaps would have done in the halcyon days before the present muddle that we find ourselves in. Still at least they didn’t throw the market into a downward spiral which has quite often happened in the past. With net profits of £6.08Bn they were 14% down on the previous year but up on analysts expectations so as a result rose by some 10% on the day.

I think the key story lay “over the pond” as we Brits like to affectionately refer to the Atlantic in that what was fast emerging from various sources was a slightly different take on the so called “financial bailout” or stimulus plan as the “Obama” Whitehouse would have us view it. The plan being discussed now was one with which a major component was to include a large degree of private funding from a various number of sources that would be underwritten by various Federal Agencies.

Basically the markets are running scared now and looking for a gift and one with which there are very little in the way of surprises. This as you could imagine does not exactly fit the bill and the end result was market which started by plunging 60 points straight after the opening bell and then spent the rest of the day see-sawing between 8300 points and the lower 8200’s and ultimately finished at around the 8237 mark.

One of these days Politicians will learn that the best way to stabilise or control the markets is to actually limit the number of surprises it experiences and therefore altering a large part of a hitherto announced financial package at the last moment falls into the category of what is known as a surprise.

Bankers might be incompetent but banks controlled by politicians, now that’s a concept guaranteed to strike fear into the hearts of most free thinking folk. Heaven save us from Politicians.

posted by Trader No 1 on Feb 6

I know gloating is not a nice thing to do and certainly in todays economic climate when there is so much global economic pain but we are doing a celebratory little “Yey we got it right” dance in the office at the moment.

Went long on the DOW @8043 and closed at 8147, long on the FTSE @4256 and closed at 4287 and short on Sterling @1.4714 and closed at 1.4635.

We don’t always get a three way break but there were reasons for it and so sign up for the free E-Book to find out how you could have reached those decisions.

posted by Trader No 1 on Feb 6

People keep asking me on Twitter ( Follow Me On Twitter) why I have suddenly decided to go long on the FTSE and US30 instead of constantly selling.

The reason is this. Its matter of psychology and is not 100% percent scientific but holds as good as any other theory doing the rounds at the moment. The markets have seen an awful lot of terrible data recently and funnily enough everytime new data surfaces the markets seem to shrug and ignore bad news - its as if the bad news is already priced into the market price. Conversely when good news surfaces the market rises modestly but thats about it.

As of the time of this posting we have seen awful data from the UK and Germany and the market has “rolled with the punches” and now there are rumours of better than expected US Non Farm Payrolls. If these materialise then perhaps they might be scope for a couple of hundred points on the DOW and hence I thought it might be worth taking a punt.

That having been said, do keep a few hedges in place just in case……:-)

posted by Trader No 1 on Feb 2

Well folks, have we got ourselves in a pickle or what? In the old days (don’t you just hate it when writers come out with phrases like that?), in the old days there were several so called “Pillars of the Community”.

First there was the local Vicar, (Parish Priest, Rector, the names vary but the post was by and large the same) next there was the local Doctor, the family Solicitor (if you were lucky enough to be able to afford one) and then there was the local Bank Manager. Never mind about “The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse” these were the boys you didn’t get on the wrong side of if you wanted to make a success of your life and yes, looking back on it, “yours truly” has probably at one time or another annoyed at least one member of all four professions.

However I digress. The point I am making is that society as we know it has changed and no longer are the old rules still in force. This means of course that the new generation of our above mentioned professionals have now assumed their position in society but society it seems no longer has the respect for these professions it once had.

Is there any wonder? Nowadays you have married clergy running off with other peoples husbands / wives, Doctors up in front of the General Medical Council on charges of disrepute, Solicitors serving jail sentences for embezzlement of client funds and then lastly you have the Bank Manager. Now what can we say about our esteemed financial friends that possibly hasn’t been put into print already?

Well as a profession they have almost single handily brought about the worst economic downturn in the last 100 years and the most serious financially challenged times almost since records began and the best part of it all is that having “right royally screwed up” (if you forgive my lapse into colloquialisms) they have the temerity to come “cap in hand” to the rest of us to ask us to bail them out of the mess they have caused and…….to ask that we still pay them their bonuses!

Now perhaps I am getting too “long in the tooth” and have missed something but in my day you got bonuses for a job well done and not the mess these idiots have landed us all in. The trouble is that they know we cannot stand by and let them disappear up their own backsides, despite how tempting the notion would be. They have screwed up so badly that the risk is let them pay for their misdemeanours and watch their business fold and then stand by and watch the rest of society collapse as well.

So as far as Governments are concerned, they cannot stand idly by and watch the financial carnage, they have to be seen to do something…..but still the rest of us will end up paying for it. The sad thing is that (allegedly) we have only just finished paying for World War II so heaven knows how long this is going to take to pay off.

We have not only let down our children by this stupidity but we have mortgaged the future of our children’s children’s children too.